Black Widow got slammed by Space Jam: A New Legacy on Friday night, taking a brutal 79.7% drop from its $39.5 million opening day. The Scarlett Johansson-starring prequel earned $8 million yesterday, bringing its eight-day total to $113 million. That drop is about on par with the 81% tumble of Batman v Superman and the 83% drop for Dark Phoenix, and it’s by far the worst Friday-to-Friday drop for an MCU flick.
It’ll likely earn around $24.6 million for the weekend, down 69% from its $80 million launch. Again, that’s worse than the 62% drops (on this same weekend in 2017 and 2018) of Spider-Man: Homecoming (after a $117 million debut) and Ant-Man and the Wasp (after a $76 million debut). That (for now) 69.3% drop would be ahead of only Jonah Hex, Hulk, Hellboy II, Dark Phoenix and Steel among all big-deal comic book movies.
That’s the bad news, as you can argue that the Disney+ “Premier Access” availability ate into the theatrical revenue. Yes, the film had decent weekday grosses and holds, so this could be another scenario (not unlike F9 and A Quiet Place part II) where much of the post-debut demand gets filled not on weekend two but on the first batch of Mon-Thurs weekdays. We may or may not find out how much Disney has earned from the Disney+ “Premier Access” thing at least since Sunday, so that may indeed change things.
It will still have around $130 million domestic and over/under $265 million worldwide by tomorrow night. The “good news” is that, as noted a few times over the last week, both Spider-Man and the second Ant-Man took harsh (for Marvel) second-weekend drops and then recovered to leg out over the rest of the summer. While I’m no longer presuming a 2.85x multiplier after a drop this bad, Suicide Squad may now be the ideal example.
The DC Films flick opened with $133 million in August of 2016, dive-bombed 67% in weekend two and then stuck around as the last biggie of summer for a $325 million finish. That film nabbed a 2.44x multiplier, which A) was leggier than Captain America: Civil War that summer and B) was unusually leggy among movies taking huge second-weekend dips. 2.44 x $80.3 million is still $196 million domestic, or essentially tied with the first Ant-Man ($180 million in 2015/$195 million adjusted).
In other holdover news, Universal’s F9 earned another $2.18 million (-38%) for a likely $6.7 million (-41%) fourth-weekend gross and a new $154 million 24-day cume. That’ll put it just behind A Quiet Place part II as the summer’s biggest domestic earner, a milestone it should reach early next week. I’m assuming Black Widow will eventually catch up to wherever F9 lands, but after this weekend it’s no longer inevitable.
Speaking of which (skipping around for a moment), the Paramount horror sequel will earn another $2.09 million in weekend eight, dropping just 34% despite currently being available on both EST ($20 to buy) and Paramount+ (free to stream for around $10 per month). A Quiet Place part II is either proof that theatrical can thrive amid shorter windows. Either that, or consumers are too uninformed at the moment to know that they can buy it for $20 or watch it for “free” on Paramount+.
Likewise, The Boss Baby: Family Business earned $1.47 million (-50%) thanks to competition from Space Jam 2, setting the stage for a $4.41 million (-50%) weekend and $44.332 million 17-day total. This one is also streaming for free, on Universal’s Peacock platform, so it won’t go the usual “theaters to PVOD in 21 days” thing. But, again, it dropped this weekend due to theatrical competition, not streaming availability.
The Forever Purge (another Universal release, natch) earned $1.26 million (-46%) on Friday for a likely $3.76 million (-47%) third-weekend gross and $35.511 million 17-day cume. That’s obviously low for a Purge flick, especially one budgeted at $25 million. But we’ll see how it performs when it debuts on PVOD this coming Thursday or Friday. That high budget made sense after The First Purge earned $137 million worldwide in 2018.
In limited-release opener news, Morgan Neville’s Roadrunner, not a Looney Tunes flick but a documentary about Anthony Bourdain, opened in 927 theaters with around $760,000 on Friday. That will likely lead to a $1.66 million weekend and $1,791 per-theater average for the well-reviewed but now retroactively controversial (due to an admission that the director essentially faked the late Bourdain reading his words as voiceover narration) documentary. I’m guessing that won’t mean a thing to 99% of general moviegoers.
Nicolas Cage’s Pig got what may be the biggest theatrical release for a live-action star vehicle since Left Behind in 2014. Director Michael Sarnoski’s acclaimed “former chef turned vagrant hunts for his stolen truffle pig” drama earned (justly) rave reviews and plaudits for Cage’s low-key star turn. Cue a $370,000 Friday and likely $1.636 million opening weekend for the Neon release. It’s a damn good movie if you don’t mind the fact that it’s not remotely a Taken or John Wick-style revenge thriller.