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Although Succession as a show has picked up 13 Emmys(opens in a new tab) across its first three seasons, only three of those so far have been for the acting.
But with the HBO series’ final season now at an end, and only one more shot at an award for some of the key players, which actor is the most likely to actually come away with a golden statuette?
The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. But in the meantime, we’ve broken down Succession‘s previous years’ Emmy nominees and winners, and who’s entering which category for this year’s awards, to try and work it out.
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Which Succession actors have won or been nominated for an Emmy so far?
Although no actors from the show were nominated for the first season, the second and third led to a bunch of nods in the guest, supporting and lead categories. Below are all the actors who were nominated for Season 2 (2020) and Season 3 (2022). It’s worth noting that the only winners (bolded below) so far have been Matthew Macfadyen for Outstanding Supporting Actor as Tom Wambsgans in 2022, Jeremy Strong for Outstanding Lead Actor as Kendall Roy in 2020, and Cherry Jones for Outstanding Guest Actress in 2020 for her role as Nan Pierce.
Jeremy Strong is one of only three “Succession” actors to have won an Emmy so far.
Credit: Macall B. Polay/HBO
Lead: Brian Cox, Jeremy Strong.
Supporting: Nicholas Braun, Kieran Culkin, Matthew Macfadyen, J. Smith-Cameron, Sarah Snook.
Guest: James Cromwell, Arian Moayed, Alexander Skarsgård, Hope Davis, Sanaa Lathan, Harriet Walter, Adrien Brody.
Lead: Brian Cox, Jeremy Strong.
Supporting: Nicholas Braun, Kieran Culkin, Matthew Macfadyen, Sarah Snook.
Guest: James Cromwell, Cherry Jones, Harriet Walter.
Which Succession actors are most likely to win Emmys in 2023?
So, we’ve taken a quick look at Succession‘s Emmys history, but how will things shape up in 2023?
First of all, it’s worth noting a few changes. This year Kieran Culkin (Roman Roy) joins Brian Cox (Logan Roy) and Strong in the Outstanding Lead Actor category, so there’s a bit more competition there, while Sarah Snook has also made the jump from Supporting Actress to Lead Actress as Shiv Roy. Who’s going to come away with an actual award, though?
In terms of the Lead category, it’s very tough to say. Strong is the only one to have won an Emmy before, so some voters might have felt inclined to recognise Cox’s massive contribution to the show. The problem is, he was only in the final season for three episodes. Will that really be enough screen-time to clinch it for him? Maybe Culkin, who had some huge moments in Season 4 — from his nihilistic tampering on election night to his breakdown at his dad’s funeral — could be a dark horse winner? Perhaps, but there is another huge outside competitor to face: Bob Odenkirk, who is eligible for the last time for his role in Better Call Saul — and who has yet to win an Emmy for the role.
In terms of Lead Actress, Snook surely has a massive shot, although nothing is guaranteed. Although she’ll face no competition from her co-stars she will be going up against shows like Yellowjackets, The Crown, and The Last of Us, which could mean a tough contest with fellow nominees Melanie Lynskey, Imelda Staunton, and Bella Ramsey.
Supporting actor-wise, Macfadyen probably has the best chance of taking another Emmy home, especially now that Culkin is in a different category. He’ll still face competition from Nicholas Braun and possibly Alan Ruck for their roles as Cousin Greg and Connor Roy, but a dark horse contender could be Alexander Skarsgård, who had a much bigger role as Lukas Matsson in Season 4. If we had to guess, though, we’d say Macfadyen has the best shot here, especially given the impressive range he showed off in some of those nasty argument scenes, and the journey of his character by the end of Season 4.
Matthew Macfadyen probably has the best shot of winning an Emmy.
Credit: Claudette Barius/HBO
With Snook no longer in the category, the Succession star with the best shot would probably be J. Smith-Cameron. But as awesome as she is in the show as Gerri Kellman, the chances of her taking home an Emmy aren’t great this year. The reason? She’s going up against last year’s Emmy winner Jennifer Coolidge for her (highly meme’d) role in The White Lotus, and previous nominee Rhea Seehorn for her iconic turn in Better Call Saul. The competition is just way too tough.
Tricky to predict who will turn up in this category, but it seems likely that James Cromwell will be back for his role as Ewan Roy, as well as Arian Moayed for his role as Stewy Hosseini. Cromwell’s funeral speech got a lot of attention in Season 4, but there is an issue — he’s likely going to be going up against Nick Offerman and Murray Bartlett for their massive roles in The Last of Us‘ famously heartbreaking third episode. That’s going to be tough to beat.
Again, tricky to predict, but Harriet Walter might well make the cut for role as the Roy kids’ always-unpleasant mother, Lady Caroline Collingwood. She could be up against Melanie Lynskey for her role in The Last of Us, though, or Anna Torv for her part as Tess in the show. So again, there are no guarantees.